Friday, February 11, 2011

Air Cargo Management Group remains cautious on continued air cargo growth despite positive gains

Cathy Pacific Cargo 747-467F/SCD (32571/1271) B-HUO climbs from Rwy 25R at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX/KLAX) on February 10, 2011.
(Photo by Michael Carter)

Air Cargo Management Group said a "great deal of uncertainty" remains regarding international air cargo demand going forward despite the fact that 2010 international airfreight traffic exceeded 2007, when the industry's prior peak traffic performance was achieved.

In its latest "International Air Freight and Express Industry Performance Analysis," ACMG cautioned that the "extreme volatility in recent years" make predictions difficult. Nevertheless, it said, "Assuming no major economic shock, ACMG predicts that we are entering a more 'normal' period." Managing Director Robert Dahl stated, "History would indicate roughly 6% annual growth in FTK demand [in 2011], but ACMG believes the maturity of the airfreight market will produce somewhat lower growth in the range of 4.5%-5.5% per year going forward."Boeing predicted in its World Air Cargo Forecast released last autumn that international FTKs will grow at an annual average rate of 5.9% through 2029.

"The past three years have been a veritable roller coaster ride for the industry," Dahl commented. "A run-up in fuel prices in 2008 put a damper on expansion, and the financial crisis that began in September of that year triggered the worst recession in 50 years. Airfreight suffered badly, including a period of 12 consecutive months with declining traffic, culminating in an overall airfreight traffic decline of 11% in 2009."

ACMG estimated that the international air cargo and express industry (airlines, freight forwarders and express operators) generated approximately $66.3 billion in revenue in 2009, down nearly 25% from 2008. Industry revenue for 2010 is expected to have increased "at least 20% based on improvements in both traffic and yield," ACMG said.

Dahl continued, "Few anticipated the speed of the recovery, with some market participants reporting by mid-2010 that air freight traffic had returned to pre-recession levels … We enter 2011 thankful for the recovery, but with a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen next."

ACMG said the global freighter fleet currently stands at 1,623 units, up about 4% from 2009, but down about 10% from a peak in 2007. It said international express volumes grew 12.5% over mid-2009 levels to reach 2.25 million shipments per day in 2010. "The increase in express volume in 2010 follows a modest 1.4% gain in 2008 and a 6.9% drop in 2009."

Despite the fact that express shipments "represent a growing share of total international airfreight tonnage," ACMG concluded that the express sector is "unlikely to achieve a dominant position in the international market as they succeeded in doing in the US domestic airfreight market."

(Aaron Karp - ATWOnline News)


Unknown said...

Thank you for sharing.I found this post to be very informative. Air cargo is becoming increasingly popular. I would have to imagine the price of fuel poses a great challenge.

air freight Boston

Unknown said...

I think air cargo can pull through. It's just your regular business trend: booms and busts, ups and downs, with the booms being commensurate with the previous busts and even exceeding them. Like turbulence, it distracts and gives a faulty impression. But in the end, air cargo will stick the landing safe and sound mainly because it remains a viable means of transport.

Pedro @ Orbit

Unknown said...

Thank you for sharing the information.

Air freight cargo is helping a lot in delivering the goods on time safely and securely.

Now a days, various types of companies are providing the service of goods delivery with the help of warehousing, logistics, air freight and I recently, came across a site named as who is providing the service of logistics, warehousing, air freight and cargo.